For most of 2025, homeowners replacing a central air conditioner or heat pump heard the same warning from installers: equipment charged with R-410A could not be installed after January 1, 2026. That date no longer holds nationally. On May 26, 2026, EPA issued a final rule that lets units made or imported before January 1, 2025 that use R-410A be installed until existing supplies run out, and the rule took effect on July 27, 2026.
That turns one of the biggest home-improvement purchases into a three-way choice: repair the system you have, buy one of the remaining R-410A units, or move to a new system built for A2L refrigerants such as R-454B or R-32.
Trend Signal
60/100 Steady momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Heat pumps keep gaining share while the refrigerant switch settles
RMI, using AHRI data, reports that heat pumps made up 47% of US cooling equipment sales in 2025 and outsold one-way ACs in October through December for the first time, even as HARDI put the 2025 heat pump shipment pace down 11.6% after a 2024 pre-buy.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- 47%Heat pumps’ share of US cooling equipment sales in 2025, based on AHRI dataRMI
- 26.2%US central AC shipments, 12-month pace at December 2025, slowest since summer 2016HARDI
- Jul 27, 2026Effective date of the EPA rule allowing leftover pre-2025 R-410A units to be installedNAHB
- $2,000Former federal credit cap for qualifying heat pumps, for improvements made through 2025IRS
What EPA changed, and when
EPA’s October 2023 Technology Transitions rule set a GWP (global warming potential) limit of 700 for refrigerants in new residential and light commercial air conditioners and heat pumps, starting January 1, 2025, according to the agency’s restrictions-by-sector table. A December 2023 interim rule then let contractors keep installing inventory made or imported before January 1, 2025 until January 1, 2026.
That second date is what changed. According to NAHB, EPA said late in 2025 that enforcement of the deadline would be deprioritized “in response to concerns on the availability and cost of A2L refrigerant in the field.” The May 26, 2026 final rule writes that relief into the regulation: R-410A units manufactured or imported before 2025 can be installed in homes “until existing supplies of these HVAC units are depleted,” effective July 27, 2026.
Two limits remain. Because the exemption covers only equipment made or imported before 2025, that stock can only shrink. And New York has written the original January 1, 2026 deadline into state law, so NAHB says no R-410A systems can be installed there. R-410A production itself keeps stepping down year by year under the HFC phasedown until it reaches 15% of current output, a point NAHB puts about a decade out.
The R-410A deadline became a supply question: if an installer still has a pre-2025 unit, it can go in, except in New York.
What is inside a new system
Equipment manufactured since January 1, 2025 has to meet the 700 GWP limit. EPA’s SNAP program lists both HFC-32 (R-32) and R-454B as “acceptable with use conditions” for new residential and light commercial systems. R-32 carries a GWP of 675 and R-454B a GWP of 470, both under the cap. Both carry the A2L safety classification, and EPA’s FAQ calls refrigerants like them “mildly flammable.”
The use conditions matter because these refrigerants are approved only when equipment and installation follow specific requirements in EPA regulations. For a homeowner, the practical step is to ask whether a quote pairs the outdoor unit with indoor equipment the manufacturer approves for that refrigerant, and to get both model numbers in writing.
Repairs are a separate track. EPA’s restrictions do not apply to components used to repair existing systems, and the agency’s FAQ says owners can keep repairing an existing system, “including replacing a major component like a condensing unit or compressor.”
A working R-410A system can legally be repaired, even with major components, so replacement is a choice rather than a mandate.
Shipments reset after the 2024 pre-buy
The shipment data explains why the refrigerant switch felt chaotic in 2025. HARDI, the HVAC distributors’ association, says shipment growth “soared in the back half of 2024 as distributors geared up for the transition to A2L products,” which left distributors working through high inventories in 2025. By December 2025, the 12-month pace of central AC shipments was down 26.2%, while heat pumps were down 11.6% to a pace of about 3.6 million units and furnaces were up 4.1%.
Heat pumps held up better than air conditioners. RMI’s tracker, built on AHRI data, says heat pumps made up 47% of cooling equipment sales in 2025, up from 33% ten years earlier, and for the first time outsold one-way ACs in October, November and December. Manufacturers shipped 12% more heat pumps than gas furnaces in 2025, 3.6 million units against 3.2 million.
Early 2026 looks steadier. Utility Dive, reporting AHRI data through April 2026, found year-to-date heat pump shipments up 1.2% to more than 1.3 million units, while gas furnace shipments fell 11.6% to 966,919 units.
Repair, leftover R-410A, or a new A2L system
A leftover R-410A unit is legal to install outside New York, but it is finite stock, and refrigerant for future service will come from a supply that the phasedown keeps shrinking.
A new A2L system avoids that supply question for the life of the equipment, and it is the only kind of central system that can be newly manufactured under the 700 GWP limit. EPA’s own stated reason for the extension, concerns about the availability and cost of A2L refrigerant, is a reminder to get a written quote that names the refrigerant, lists both model numbers and says whether the refrigerant charge is included.
| Option | What the rules say | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Repair the existing system | Allowed, including a new condensing unit or compressor | Age of the system and repair cost against a replacement quote |
| Install a leftover R-410A unit | Allowed until pre-2025 stock runs out, except in New York | Manufacture date on the unit and warranty terms |
| Install a new R-454B or R-32 system | Required for equipment made from January 1, 2025 | Matching indoor and outdoor units approved for the refrigerant |
Who should move now and who can wait
The federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit, which paid up to $2,000 a year for heat pumps meeting the top efficiency tier, covered improvements made through December 31, 2025, according to the IRS. A 2026 replacement has no federal credit to chase, which removes one reason to hurry; state and utility incentives, where they exist, are the ones to check.
If your system works, the rules give you room: repairs remain legal, and both refrigerant paths are open. If it fails in peak season, a leftover R-410A unit that an installer has on hand can shorten the wait. Owners in New York should plan on an A2L system.
What to watch next
- Monthly AHRI shipment releases, to see whether heat pumps keep outselling one-way ACs through the 2026 cooling season
- EPA’s HFC restrictions-by-sector page, for any further change to installation dates for residential systems
- State rules like New York’s, which can keep a stricter deadline than the federal rule
Where to start
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Heat pump add-ons compared on what to check
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Ductless mini-split heat pump | Fits single rooms without ductwork | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Outdoor unit riser or pad | Fits outdoor units on wet or uneven ground | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| HVAC air filter | Fits routine upkeep of any system | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Ductless mini-split heat pump
Where to look: Amazon
A ductless unit heats and cools one zone without replacing a central system. Confirm the refrigerant on the listing and read the warranty conditions before buying.
- No ductwork needed
- Newly made units use lower-GWP refrigerants
- Needs line set and electrical work
- Warranty terms may require a licensed installer
Outdoor unit riser or pad
Where to look: Amazon
Useful when a new outdoor unit goes on a new spot. Match the rating to the weight on the unit’s spec sheet.
- Keeps the unit level
- Lifts it off standing water
- Must match the unit weight
- Does not fix a failing system
HVAC air filter
Where to look: Amazon
Whether you repair or replace, the filter is the part you change yourself. Buy by the exact size printed on the frame.
- Cheap routine upkeep
- Works with old and new refrigerants
- Wrong size lets air bypass it
- Needs regular replacement
More: Home Improvement trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- Regulatory Actions for Technology Transitions — US EPA
- Technology Transitions HFC Restrictions by Sector — US EPA
- Substitutes in Residential and Light Commercial Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps — US EPA SNAP
- Frequent Questions on the Phasedown of Hydrofluorocarbons — US EPA
- EPA Finalizes Refrigerant Rule Update to Allow Older HVAC Unit Installation — NAHB
- Understanding the Numbers: AHRI Shipment Report Breakdown for December 2025 — HARDI
- Tracking the Heat Pump and Water Heater Market in the United States — RMI
- Heat pump shipments rise through April, with more use for both heating and cooling — Utility Dive
- Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit — IRS
Questions readers ask
Can you still install an R-410A heat pump or AC in 2026?
Yes, in most states. EPA’s final rule, effective July 27, 2026, allows units made or imported before January 1, 2025 to be installed until existing supplies are depleted. New York kept the January 1, 2026 deadline in state law.
Can I still repair my R-410A system?
Yes. EPA says its restrictions do not apply to components used to repair existing systems, and its FAQ says repairs can include replacing a condensing unit or compressor.
What refrigerant do new heat pumps use?
Newly made residential systems must use refrigerants under a 700 GWP limit. EPA lists R-32 (GWP 675) and R-454B (GWP 470) as acceptable with use conditions; both are A2L refrigerants, which EPA describes as mildly flammable.
Is there still a federal tax credit for heat pumps?
The IRS says the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit, up to $2,000 a year for qualifying heat pumps, covered improvements made through December 31, 2025.
