Coffee prices have climbed steeply since 2024. The Bureau of Labor Statistics average price for a pound of 100% ground roast coffee, published on FRED, went from $6.31 in August 2024 to $8.87 in August 2025 and a record $9.72 in April 2026, the highest in a series that starts in 1980 (the figures are not adjusted for inflation). Then it turned: $9.51 in May, $9.46 in June, $9.32 in July and $9.30 in August.
A 42-cent slide over four months is not a cut anyone notices at the register, but it is the first sustained decline of this run, and the forces behind it are lining up. Brazil is harvesting a crop that USDA forecasts could be a record, tariffs came off most coffee imports in November 2025, and the global arabica benchmark tracked by the IMF sits below its 2025 highs. Here is how those pieces connect, and what they mean for a household buying a bag or two a month.
Trend Signal
52/100 Steady momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Past the April peak, still close to record levels
BLS data on FRED put ground coffee at $9.30 a pound in August 2026, the fourth monthly decline from $9.72 in April, the highest in the series back to 1980, while the coffee CPI was still 6.1% above August 2025 by our calculation.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- $9.30Average price of 1 lb of ground roast coffee, U.S. city average, August 2026BLS via FRED
- +47%Change in that average price from August 2024 ($6.31) to August 2026, our calculationBLS via FRED
- 71.9M bagsBrazil 2026/27 coffee crop forecast by USDA FAS, a potential record (60-kilogram bags)Daily Coffee News
- 66%U.S. adults who drank coffee in the past day, NCA survey fielded in June 2026National Coffee Association
Where the shelf price stands
Two BLS measures tell the same story. The average-price series for ground roast coffee peaked at $9.72 a pound in April 2026 and slipped to $9.30 by August. The broader consumer price index for coffee, which also covers instant and other formats, peaked in May 2026; in August it stood 6.1% above August 2025 and 28% above August 2024, by our calculation from the index levels.
USDA’s Economic Research Service, in its August 2026 Food Price Outlook, forecasts prices for nonalcoholic beverages to rise 4.3% in 2026, after a 2025 increase it attributes primarily to beverage materials including coffee and tea. In July 2026 that category was running 4.1% above a year earlier. Coffee inflation has slowed from its 2025 pace, in other words, but it has not reversed on a year-over-year basis.
| Month | Average price, 1 lb ground coffee |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | $6.31 |
| August 2025 | $8.87 |
| April 2026 | $9.72 (record) |
| June 2026 | $9.46 |
| August 2026 | $9.30 |
The shelf price has turned, but by our math it is still about 5% above a year ago and roughly 47% above two years ago.
What pushed coffee up, and what is pulling it down
Retail coffee follows green coffee with a lag. The IMF’s monthly benchmark for other mild arabica coffee averaged about 204 cents a pound in January 2024. It roughly doubled to about 410 cents in February 2025 and hit about 410 cents again in November 2025. By June 2026 it had fallen to about 308 cents, roughly a quarter below the November high by our calculation.
The main reason is supply. In its annual Brazil coffee report, summarized by Daily Coffee News on June 4, 2026, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest at 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, up 14.1% and a potential record, with arabica output up 25% to 47.5 million bags. It expects Brazilian coffee exports to rise 29.6% to 49.07 million bags. Inside Brazil, arabica averaged 1,811.87 reais a bag in April 2026, 28% less than a year earlier.
The counter-signal is volatility. The same IMF series jumped back to about 359 cents in July 2026, up about 17% from June by our calculation. Swings like that are a reason not to expect a fast drop at the store: in this cycle, the retail peak in April 2026 came about five months after the November 2025 benchmark high.
Tariffs are mostly off the table for coffee
Trade policy added a second layer of cost in 2025. A November 14, 2025 executive order, effective for goods entered from November 13, 2025, added roasted and unroasted coffee, along with green and black tea, to the list of products not subject to the reciprocal tariff. A November 20, 2025 order put the same coffee lines on the exclusion list for the additional 40% duty on goods from Brazil, which the National Coffee Association calls the world’s largest coffee producer.
The association said the Brazil decision meant every cup would cost less. In July 2026 it reported that coffee and unflavored instant coffee were exempted from new tariffs the U.S. Trade Representative imposed on Brazil under Section 301, and thanked the administration for maintaining previous coffee exemptions. In our read, as of those actions tariffs are no longer a major upward force on coffee, which leaves the harvest and the futures market in charge of where prices go next.
With coffee exempted from the main tariff actions, the price path now depends mostly on Brazil’s harvest.
Who should buy now and who should wait
Demand has not flinched. The National Coffee Association’s fall 2026 survey, fielded June 8–24, 2026 with 1,882 adults, found 66% of American adults had coffee in the past day, 83% of past-day drinkers had it at home, and 48% of adults had specialty coffee, which the association calls a record. Out-of-home coffee reached 38% of past-day drinkers, the highest since January 2020. In our read, demand that steady gives roasters little reason to rush price cuts.
For most households the practical move is to keep buying at a normal pace. At $9.30 a pound, ground coffee works out to about 58 cents an ounce by our math, so comparing the per-ounce price across bag sizes and formats saves more than trying to time the market. Stockpiling months of supply locks in a price that the BLS series shows is already drifting down.
If you brew with a single-serve machine, a reusable filter lets you use bagged coffee instead of pods; check the per-ounce math on both before switching. Heavy home brewers who grind their own beans can buy larger whole-bean bags, as long as they finish them while they still taste fresh.
What to watch next
- September 2026 coffee CPI data, which FRED lists for release on October 14, 2026; a fifth monthly decline in the ground coffee average would confirm the turn
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service updates to its Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast
- Any change to the Section 301 exemption for Brazilian coffee, which the National Coffee Association tracks
Where to start
Paid links: we earn a commission if you buy through the buttons below, at no extra cost to you. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
Ways to trim the cost per cup at home
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Whole bean coffee, 2 lb bag | Fits daily home brewers | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Airtight coffee canister with valve | Fits bulk bean buyers | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Reusable single-serve coffee filter | Fits pod-machine owners | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Whole bean coffee, 2 lb bag
Where to look: Amazon
For households that go through a pound or more a month. Compare the per-ounce price against smaller bags and check the roast date on the listing.
- Larger bags can lower the per-ounce price
- Grind only what you brew
- Needs a grinder
- A big bag can go stale before you finish it
Reusable single-serve coffee filter
Where to look: Amazon
For single-serve brewer owners who want bagged-coffee pricing. Confirm your brewer model is listed as compatible before you buy.
- Lets you use bagged coffee in a pod brewer
- Cuts single-use pod waste
- Needs rinsing after each cup
- Fit varies by brewer model
Airtight coffee canister with valve
Where to look: Amazon
Useful if you buy larger bags to lower the per-ounce price. Match the canister capacity to the bag size you usually buy.
- Airtight lid limits air exposure
- A one-way valve lets fresh roasts vent
- Adds cost to your first bag
- Capacity caps how much you can store
More: Food and Drink trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- Average Price: Coffee, 100%, Ground Roast, All Sizes, U.S. City Average — BLS via FRED
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Coffee in U.S. City Average — BLS via FRED
- Global price of Coffee, Other Mild Arabica — IMF via FRED
- Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings, August 2026 — USDA Economic Research Service
- Brazil Coffee Report: Record Crop and Exports Expected for 2026/27 — Daily Coffee News
- Modifying the Scope of the Reciprocal Tariff with Respect to Certain Agricultural Products — The White House
- Modifying the Scope of Tariffs on the Government of Brazil — The White House
- NCA applauds removal of tariffs on Brazilian coffee — National Coffee Association
- NCA applauds exemption of coffee from Section 301 tariffs on Brazil — National Coffee Association
- Coffee tops beverage charts again, specialty coffee hits new high — National Coffee Association
Questions readers ask
Why is coffee so expensive in 2026?
Retail prices still reflect the 2024–2025 run-up in green coffee. The IMF’s benchmark for other mild arabica roughly doubled from about 204 cents a pound in January 2024 to about 410 cents in February 2025, and hit about 410 cents again in November 2025. The BLS average for ground coffee followed with a lag, peaking at $9.72 a pound in April 2026.
Will coffee prices go down?
They have started to. The BLS average price for ground coffee fell for four straight months to $9.30 a pound in August 2026. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts a 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, potentially a record, which supports further easing, but the IMF arabica benchmark rose about 17% in July 2026 by our calculation, so declines may be uneven.
Are there still tariffs on imported coffee?
A November 14, 2025 executive order exempted coffee from the reciprocal tariff, effective November 13, 2025, and a November 20, 2025 order excluded coffee from the additional 40% duty on Brazilian goods. In July 2026 the National Coffee Association reported that coffee and unflavored instant coffee were exempted from new Section 301 tariffs on Brazil.
Should I buy coffee in bulk now?
Only in amounts you will finish while the coffee is fresh. With the BLS average drifting down since April 2026, locking in months of supply at the current price has little upside; comparing the per-ounce price across bag sizes is the more reliable saving.
