Grill shoppers spent 2025 watching tariffs climb on steel and on Chinese-made goods. Traeger, which calls itself the category leader in wood pellet grills, has about 80% of its grills manufactured in China. In 2026 the direction reversed in a messy way: the Supreme Court threw out the tariffs imposed under emergency powers, a temporary replacement tariff expired, and a new round of trade duties arrived in July.
Prices followed, unevenly. The government index that includes barbecue grills rose into January 2026 and has eased since, and Traeger’s average grill selling price fell by more than a fifth. Here is what the data shows, and what it means if you are shopping for a grill this fall.
Trend Signal
52/100 Steady momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Prices easing from a January peak as brands chase lower price points
The BLS index for outdoor equipment and supplies, which includes barbecue grills, fell 2.0% from January to August 2026, and Traeger said its average grill selling price dropped more than 20% in the second quarter of 2026.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- −2.0%CPI outdoor equipment and supplies, Jan to Aug 2026, NSA (our calculation from BLS data)BLS
- +0.4%Same CPI index, August 2025 to August 2026 (our calculation from BLS data)BLS
- >20%Drop in Traeger’s average grill selling price, second quarter of 2026 vs 2025Traeger 10-Q
- ~80%Share of Traeger grills manufactured in China, per its mid-2026 quarterly filingTraeger 10-Q
What the price index shows
The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish a separate consumer price index for grills. The closest measure is “outdoor equipment and supplies,” which combines powered lawn and garden equipment and barbecue grills with outdoor plants, soil, mulch, fertilizer and pesticides, according to BLS item definitions. It is a broad basket, so read it as the direction of backyard prices rather than a grill price tag.
The direction is clear. By our calculation from the BLS index levels, the index rose 2.6% from August 2024 to August 2025, then kept climbing to 112.271 in January 2026, 5.3% above January 2025. Since then it has fallen, to 108.225 in June, before a summer bounce to 110.062 in August 2026. That leaves it 2.0% below its January peak and 0.4% above August 2025, again by our calculation.
The longer view is less comforting. The August 2026 reading is about 26% higher than in August 2019, by the same arithmetic, so the 2026 easing trims only a small part of a large run-up.
| Month | Index (Dec 1997 = 100) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| August 2019 | 87.022 | — |
| August 2025 | 109.645 | +2.6% vs Aug 2024 |
| January 2026 | 112.271 | +5.3% vs Jan 2025 |
| June 2026 | 108.225 | −3.6% vs Jan 2026 |
| August 2026 | 110.062 | +0.4% vs Aug 2025 |
The tariff whiplash behind the curve
Traeger’s quarterly filing lays out the sequence. In early 2025 the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods and “reciprocal” tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) that escalated to as high as 125%. Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum rose to 50% in June 2025 and were expanded to derivative products in August 2025. A November 2025 agreement with China reduced certain tariffs on Chinese goods to 10%.
On February 20, 2026 the Supreme Court held in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. A 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 took effect February 24, 2026 and expired July 24, 2026. The same day, new Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies took effect, subject to certain product exemptions. Separately, an April 2, 2026 proclamation made the 50% metals rate apply to the full customs value of certain steel, aluminum and copper products.
Refunds of the struck-down IEEPA duties are going to importers. Traeger received $16.0 million in refund cash in the second quarter of 2026, Toro had recorded about $8 million and estimates it could recover about $20 million, and Husqvarna Group booked SEK 240 million. The companies record the refunds as lower costs, which lifts their margins, and none of these filings describes passing the money back to customers.
The legal basis for the biggest 2025 tariffs is gone, but new duties replaced part of them.
Why pellet grills got cheaper
Traeger’s grill revenue fell 17.0% to $61.6 million in the second quarter of 2026. Its 10-Q says the drop came from a reduction in average selling price of more than 20%, partly offset by a high-single-digit increase in units, because its 2026 launches were lower-priced grills while the prior year’s launches were higher-priced. The company also cited pricing and channel actions under a transformation program it calls Project Gravity.
The lineup shows the shift. Traeger now sells ten grill series, including the newer Westwood and Irontop lines its CEO credited with encouraging early performance, and in August 2026 it announced a retail partnership with Lowe’s. It is also exiting direct-to-consumer sales by redirecting Traeger.com shoppers to retail partners, and has discontinued its Costco roadshow program.
Lower prices are not a sign of booming demand. Traeger cut its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $435 million to $465 million, from $465 million to $485 million, citing weaker sales of its MEATER thermometers and channel effects from its distribution changes. When the category leader moves down-market while trimming its revenue forecast, we read it as a category past its growth peak and competing on price.
Cheaper pellet grills reflect a strategy shift, not a one-off sale.
Lawn equipment is moving the other way
Not every backyard category is getting cheaper. Toro says it has used targeted price increases to offset tariffs, and net price realization and mix added 2 percentage points to its residential sales growth in the quarter ended July 31, 2026. Traeger’s own filing says the tariff environment has required it to raise prices on its products in the U.S.
That split fits the index. Its peak came in January 2026, before the Supreme Court ruling, and the pullback since has been modest. Our read is that for grills specifically, competition and new low-priced models are doing more to lower shelf prices than tariff relief is.
When to buy a grill
The index gives only a weak seasonal signal: its low point for the year came in April in 2024 and 2025 and in June so far in 2026, and those dips were small. What has changed is the product mix: established brands have launched lower-priced models, which gives budget shoppers more choice than in 2025.
Buy now if one of the newer lower-priced lines fits how you cook. Waiting for deeper cuts is a gamble, because the new Section 301 duties are in force and Traeger’s filing flags still-pending Section 301 investigations as a source of uncertainty for tariff levels in the second half of 2026. If you want a premium grill, compare the current model against its predecessor, which may still be on some shelves.
- Pellet grills: check hopper capacity, temperature range and whether the app is required for basic use.
- Gas grills: check burner count, cooking area and grate material rather than the headline BTU number.
- Charcoal grills: check grate diameter, vent design and ash handling.
What to watch next
- The monthly BLS reading for outdoor equipment and supplies, to see whether the drop from January holds through the fall
- Outcomes of the pending Section 301 excess-capacity investigations, which Traeger flags as a new tariff risk
- How Traeger prices its grills at Lowe’s as the new partnership rolls out
Where to start
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Grill types compared on what differs
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Wood pellet grill | Fits low-and-slow smoking | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Propane gas grill | Fits quick weeknight grilling | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Charcoal kettle grill | Fits simple charcoal cooking | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Wood pellet grill
Where to look: Amazon
Suits cooks who want low-and-slow smoking with little tending. Traeger’s 2026 launches moved toward lower price points.
- Set-and-hold temperature control
- More lower-priced models in 2026
- Needs power and pellets
- More parts that can fail
Propane gas grill
Where to look: Amazon
Suits frequent, quick grilling. Compare cooking area and build quality rather than burner BTU claims.
- Fast heat-up
- Simple fuel supply
- Less smoke flavor
- Tank refills add running cost
Charcoal kettle grill
Where to look: Amazon
Suits buyers who want a basic, durable grill and do not mind managing charcoal.
- Few parts to break
- No electronics
- Slower to light
- Temperature takes more tending
More: Garden and Backyard trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- Outdoor equipment and supplies, CPI-U, U.S. city average — Bureau of Labor Statistics
- CPI entry level item descriptions — Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Traeger announces second quarter fiscal 2026 results — Traeger (SEC filing)
- Traeger Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 — SEC
- Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287 — Supreme Court of the United States
- The Toro Company Form 10-Q for the quarter ended July 31, 2026 — SEC
- Interim Report January–June 2026 — Husqvarna Group
Questions readers ask
Are grill prices going down in 2026?
Modestly. The BLS index for outdoor equipment and supplies, which includes barbecue grills, fell 2.0% from January to August 2026 and was 0.4% above its August 2025 level. Traeger’s average grill selling price fell more than 20% in the second quarter of 2026 as it shifted to lower-priced models.
Will shoppers get tariff refunds on grills bought in 2025?
Refunds of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court on February 20, 2026 go to the importers that paid them. Traeger, Toro and Husqvarna all reported receiving or recording refunds in 2026 and booked them as lower costs.
Are grills still subject to tariffs?
Depending on origin and materials, yes. After the IEEPA ruling, a 10% Section 122 tariff applied from February 24 to July 24, 2026, and Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies took effect July 24, 2026. Section 232 tariffs apply to certain steel and aluminum products.
Where are most pellet grills made?
Traeger says its grills are manufactured in China and Vietnam, with about 80% made in China, according to its quarterly filing for the period ended June 30, 2026.
