Paint got expensive in 2021 and 2022 and never meaningfully got cheaper. Now it is rising again. The producer price index for paint and coating manufacturing, which tracks what manufacturers charge, reached a preliminary 450.034 in August 2026, up 5.6% from a year earlier and 49.8% above January 2020, by our calculation.
Sherwin-Williams, which sells through its own Paint Stores Group, told investors in July 2026 that it was responding to “broad-based cost inflation” with pricing actions across its businesses, including an 8% increase in that group effective September 1. Here is how the price trail looks and what it means for your next repaint.
Trend Signal
72/100 Strong momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Paint prices are accelerating on cost inflation, not demand
The BLS producer price index for paint and coating manufacturing rose 5.6% from August 2025 to August 2026 (preliminary), double the prior year’s 2.8%, and Sherwin-Williams added an 8% Paint Stores Group increase on September 1, 2026.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- +5.6%BLS producer price index, paint and coating manufacturing, Aug 2025 to Aug 2026 (prelim.)BLS
- 8%Sherwin-Williams Paint Stores Group price increase, effective Sept. 1, 2026Sherwin-Williams
- +49.8%Same producer price index, January 2020 to August 2026 (preliminary)BLS
- 4%Masco Decorative Architectural Products (mainly paint) net sales, Q2 2026Masco
What the producer price index shows
The BLS producer price index (PPI) for paint and coating manufacturing measures the prices manufacturers receive, before retail markups and store promotions. That makes it an early official signal of where shelf prices are heading, and it has moved in three phases since 2020.
First came the surge: by our calculation from BLS index values, the index rose 10.3% in the year to August 2021 and 23.5% in the year to August 2022. Then a plateau, with a 0.5% rise and a 0.4% dip over the next two years. Prices never gave back the surge. The third phase began in August 2025, when the index jumped 1.9% in a single month, and it rose in every monthly reading from September 2025 through August 2026.
| 12 months to August | Change in paint and coating PPI |
|---|---|
| 2021 | +10.3% |
| 2022 | +23.5% |
| 2023 | +0.5% |
| 2024 | -0.4% |
| 2025 | +2.8% |
| 2026 (preliminary) | +5.6% |
After the 2022 spike, paint prices plateaued rather than falling, and the index has now climbed for a year straight.
What paint companies are saying
Sherwin-Williams’ second-quarter 2026 results show where the increases come from. Net sales in its Paint Stores Group rose 5.1% to $3.89 billion “primarily due to selling price increases, which impacted Net sales by a mid-single digit percentage,” with volume up by a low-single-digit percentage. Same-store sales rose 4.2%.
The company said it implemented pricing actions “to offset raw material inflation that pressured our gross margin in the quarter,” and that “broad-based cost inflation continues across raw materials, energy, logistics and packaging,” which is why it announced the 8% Paint Stores Group increase effective September 1, 2026.
Masco, whose Decorative Architectural Products segment “principally includes paints and other coating products,” reported segment net sales of $655 million in the second quarter of 2026, down 4% from $679 million, “primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by higher net selling prices,” and it cited higher commodity costs.
Prices up, gallons flat
None of this is a demand boom. Sherwin-Williams’ CEO pointed to “no meaningful improvement in demand,” and the company said customer sentiment and the leading indicators it tracks point to continued demand softness in the second half of 2026. Its strongest professional end market was protective and marine coatings; residential repaint grew by a mid-single-digit percentage.
The big home centers see the same pattern. Home Depot said customers “continued to engage in smaller projects” in its second quarter of fiscal 2026, with transactions down 0.8% and the average ticket up 2.8% to $92.50. Lowe’s cited “pressure in discretionary DIY spending” as comparable sales rose 0.2%.
Cost-driven increases with soft volume are hard to reverse. We read the 2023–2024 plateau as the guide: after the last cost wave, paint prices stopped rising but did not fall.
Paint makers are raising prices to cover costs while selling roughly the same number of gallons.
How to keep a repaint budget in check
Because the price per gallon is unlikely to drop, the savings are in how many gallons you buy and how much you waste. Test colors with samples before committing to gallons, measure the wall area and check the coverage figure on the can before ordering, and buy the full amount for a room in one batch so you are not matching colors later.
For a job you hire out, ask whether the quote includes materials and which product line, since the Sherwin-Williams increase applies in its Paint Stores Group, which reported gains in all of its professional customer end markets. If a quote was written before September 1, 2026, ask whether the materials price is locked.
Seal leftovers tightly for touch-ups. A saved quart of matched paint costs nothing later; a new gallon bought after the next increase does.
What to watch next
- The monthly BLS PPI release for paint and coating manufacturing; the August 2026 reading of 450.034 is preliminary and can be revised
- Sherwin-Williams’ third-quarter 2026 results, the first to include the September 1 increase
- Whether Masco and other paint makers follow with increases of their own
Where to start
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Paint-saving supplies compared on what to check
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Peel-and-stick paint color samples | Fits color decisions before buying gallons | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Airtight paint storage container | Fits keeping leftovers for touch-ups | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Paint roller kit with tray | Fits DIY repaints of a room or two | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Peel-and-stick paint color samples
Where to look: Amazon
The cheapest way to cut waste at today’s prices. Compare samples in the room’s daylight and lamp light before ordering.
- Avoids buying the wrong gallon
- No wet sample patches on the wall
- Printed color can differ from paint
- Limited to a brand’s own range
Airtight paint storage container
Where to look: Amazon
Leftover paint is money already spent. Decant it into a sealed container and label it with the color and sheen.
- Keeps matched paint for touch-ups
- Takes less space than a half-empty can
- A poor seal lets paint skin over
- Label it with the color and room
Paint roller kit with tray
Where to look: Amazon
If you are doing the labor yourself, the right roller helps paint go on evenly. Match nap length to the wall surface.
- Everything for a room in one box
- Reusable frame and tray
- Cheap covers shed lint
- Nap must suit the wall texture
More: Home Improvement trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- PPI industry data for paint and coating manufacturing, PCU325510325510 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Sherwin-Williams second quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99 — SEC EDGAR
- Masco Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 — SEC EDGAR
- Masco second quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99 — SEC EDGAR
- The Home Depot Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results — The Home Depot
- Lowe’s Reports Second Quarter 2026 Sales and Earnings Results — Lowe’s
Questions readers ask
Why is paint so expensive in 2026?
Paint makers cite cost inflation. Sherwin-Williams said broad-based cost inflation continues across raw materials, energy, logistics and packaging, and the BLS producer price index for paint and coating manufacturing rose 5.6% in the year to August 2026 (preliminary).
Did Sherwin-Williams raise prices in 2026?
Yes. It announced an 8% price increase in its Paint Stores Group effective September 1, 2026, after selling price increases lifted that group’s second-quarter net sales by a mid-single-digit percentage.
Will paint prices go down?
The index has not fallen meaningfully since the 2022 surge. It rose 0.5% and then fell 0.4% in the two years to August 2024 before climbing again, so a plateau is more likely than a drop.
Is paint demand rising?
No. Sherwin-Williams reported no meaningful improvement in demand in its second quarter of 2026, and net sales in Masco’s paint-focused Decorative Architectural Products segment fell 4% on lower volume.
