For two years, toys were one of the few things in American stores that kept getting cheaper. By our calculation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics toy price index fell 8.6% between January 2023 and December 2024. In 2026 that slide reversed: by July, toy prices were 4.0% higher than a year earlier, and the index stood at its highest reading since June 2023.
The increase is moderate, and it has more than one cause: tariff costs, a shift toward pricier collector products, and strong demand. Here is what the price data show, what toymakers are saying, and what it means for holiday 2026 shopping.
Trend Signal
58/100 Steady momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Toy CPI above year-ago levels every month since March 2026
The BLS toy price index ran above its year-earlier level every month from March through August 2026, peaking at +4.0% in July, and Circana measured average U.S. toy selling prices up 4% in the first half.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- +4.0%BLS consumer price index for toys, July 2026 vs. July 2025, not seasonally adjustedU.S. BLS via FRED
- +2.3%Same toy price index, August 2026 vs. August 2025, the latest readingU.S. BLS via FRED
- +4%Average selling price of U.S. toys, January–June 2026 vs. a year earlierCircana
- 48.2%Mattel gross margin in Q2 2026, down from 50.9%; it cited tariffs and inflationMattel
The toy price index turned in 2026
The BLS consumer price index for toys, which the St. Louis Fed republishes in its FRED database, stood above 30 in March 2023 and then drifted lower. By our calculation, in August 2024 it was 3.2% below its level a year earlier, and in August 2025 it was essentially flat, up 0.1%. It reached a low of 27.092 in December 2024.
The turn came in 2026. The index ran above its year-earlier level every month from March through August, and the gap widened to 3.5% in June and 4.0% in July. The July reading of 29.332 was the highest since June 2023. August eased to a 2.3% year-over-year gain as the index slipped back from its July level.
Two cautions apply. The series is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month moves partly reflect sales cycles, and year-over-year comparisons are the fairer read. And the FRED series shows no October 2025 value, so the record has a gap.
| Month | Toy CPI (1982–84=100) | Change vs. a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | 28.060 | –3.2% |
| August 2025 | 28.089 | +0.1% |
| March 2026 | 28.108 | +2.3% |
| June 2026 | 29.265 | +3.5% |
| July 2026 | 29.332 | +4.0% |
| August 2026 | 28.729 | +2.3% |
Toy prices are rising again, by low single digits year over year.
Why the price tag is rising
Part of the increase is what people buy. Circana reported that the average selling price of toys rose 4% in 2025 and another 4% in the first half of 2026. In 2025, toys priced $30 to $69.99 were the fastest-growing price band, up 18%, while items under $5 and those priced $15 to $19.99 posted the steepest declines. Adults and teens generated nearly 60% of the industry’s dollar gains in the first half of 2026, and the fastest-growing categories were Games & Puzzles (+45%) and Explorative & Other Toys (+58%), the two supercategories Circana tied to Pokémon and NFL trading cards in 2025.
The second part is cost. Tariff policy changed repeatedly in 2026. On February 20, the Supreme Court ruled 6–3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs, and the IEEPA duties stopped on February 24. A 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act took effect the same day for 150 days. It expired at the end of July 23, and on July 24 new Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, announced by the U.S. Trade Representative on July 23, took effect.
Toymakers are absorbing part of the cost. Mattel’s gross margin fell to 48.2% in the second quarter of 2026 from 50.9% a year earlier, which it attributed to the gross incremental cost of tariffs, inflation, higher royalties and unfavorable foreign exchange. Hasbro said the second-quarter operating loss in its Consumer Products segment reflected incremental tariff expense, among other factors.
The message from the data firm shifted during the year. In February 2026, Circana’s Juli Lennett said tariffs had not yet materially impacted prices for consumers but that their downstream effects remained unpredictable. By August, Circana’s first-half report listed tariffs, inflation and emerging price increases among the factors to monitor heading into the holidays.
Where prices are heading for holiday 2026
We found no published holiday 2026 toy price forecast from a toymaker or data firm. What the evidence supports is a direction rather than a number: the price index is above year-ago levels, average selling prices are rising, and Mattel and Hasbro are both reporting higher costs.
Demand is not the brake it was in 2023 and 2024. Circana measured U.S. toy dollar sales up 17% and units up 12% in the first half of 2026, the strongest first half in six years, and Mattel said consumer demand for its products was positive year to date. We read strong sell-through as a reason to expect fewer deep discounts on popular lines.
There are counter-signals. The index’s year-over-year gain narrowed from 4.0% in July to 2.3% in August, and Mattel’s gross billings for Barbie fell 16% in the second quarter while its infant, toddler and preschool category fell 11%. Softer categories like those are where we would expect the most promotions, and the fastest-growing categories, such as trading cards and building sets, are where we would expect the fewest.
Who should buy now and who should wait
Buy early if the gift is a popular licensed item, a trading card product or a building set tied to a big franchise. Those categories drove the 2026 growth, so availability is the main risk, not a small change in list price.
Compare and wait on traditional categories where sales are soft, such as dolls and preschool toys, and on low-priced items, where Circana saw declines in 2025. With the index moving by a few percent a year, a single promotion can matter more to your total than the underlying trend.
- Pick a short list of target gifts and track their prices for a few weeks before buying.
- Check the price on the toymaker’s own store against retailers to spot inflated “was” prices.
- Set a budget per child or per adult before the holiday sales start, since average selling prices are drifting up.
What to watch next
- The BLS toy price index for September through November 2026, mirrored on FRED each month, for whether the year-over-year gain widens again after August’s 2.3%.
- Mattel’s and Hasbro’s third-quarter 2026 earnings, for any disclosed price increases or new tariff cost estimates.
- Court challenges to the 2026 tariffs and any refunds of IEEPA duties, which could change importers’ costs.
Where to start
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Toy types that stretch a holiday budget
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Classic building bricks bulk set | Fits a mixed-age household | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Family board game | Fits family game nights | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Kids arts and crafts kit | Fits a small gift budget | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Classic building bricks bulk set
Where to look: Amazon
Building sets grew 22% in the U.S. in the first half of 2026, and branded sets carry franchise pricing. A generic bulk tub gives the most building per dollar for younger kids.
- Open-ended play for many ages
- Works with sets you already own
- Small parts, not for toddlers
- No instructions for big builds
Family board game
Where to look: Amazon
Games & Puzzles was the largest U.S. toy supercategory in 2025. A board game spreads one price across several players, which helps when average toy prices are rising.
- One purchase for the whole family
- Replayable for years
- Needs a group to play
- Some games suit only older kids
Kids arts and crafts kit
Where to look: Amazon
Arts & Crafts sales grew 20% in the first half of 2026, per Circana. A kit is a lower-cost gift that still feels substantial; check what refills cost.
- Low entry price
- Hours of activity per kit
- Consumables run out
- Can be messy
More: Collectibles and Toys trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Toys in U.S. City Average — FRED, St. Louis Fed
- U.S. Toy Industry Posts Strongest First Half in Six Years — Circana
- U.S. Toy Industry Returns to Growth in 2025 — Circana
- Mattel Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results — Mattel
- Hasbro second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 — SEC EDGAR
- IEEPA Tariffs Terminated, Replacement Section 122 Tariffs Take Effect — Covington
- New 10 to 12.5% Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs Take Effect July 24, 2026 — Baker McKenzie
Questions readers ask
Are toy prices going up in 2026?
Yes, modestly. By our calculations from BLS data, the consumer price index for toys was 4.0% higher in July 2026 than a year earlier and 2.3% higher in August, after falling 8.6% from January 2023 to December 2024.
Why are toys more expensive?
Two reasons show up in the data. Buyers are shifting to pricier items, which lifted Circana’s U.S. average selling price 4% in the first half of 2026, and tariffs raised costs, which Mattel cited when its gross margin fell to 48.2% in the second quarter.
What happened to tariffs in 2026?
The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, and those duties ended February 24. A 10% Section 122 surcharge then applied until July 24, when new Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies took effect. The rate on a given toy depends on where it is made and how it is classified.
Will toys be cheaper on Black Friday 2026?
Some will be, as in any year, but we would not count on deep cuts for popular lines. U.S. toy unit sales rose 12% in the first half of 2026 and the price index was rising. Softer categories such as dolls and preschool toys are likelier candidates for promotions.
