Wood is the least glamorous line on a woodworking budget and usually the largest. Through 2026 it has also been the least predictable. A Section 232 action put a tariff on imported softwood timber and lumber, a second proclamation pushed the next increases out by a year, and the indexes that track what mills charge moved in opposite directions depending on the species.
For a hobbyist buying a few boards at a time, the question is narrow: which parts of the rack got more expensive, which did not, and what is scheduled to change next. The federal record answers all three, and it points at hardwood rather than at the pine in the home center.
Trend Signal
62/100 Steady momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Softwood and plywood up double digits while hardwood barely moves
Producer prices for softwood lumber rose 11.8% and plywood 10.7% in the 12 months to August 2026, against 1.7% for hardwood lumber, and a 10% Section 232 duty has applied to imported softwood timber and lumber since October 14, 2025.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- 11.8%Producer price index change for softwood lumber, August 2025 to August 2026Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 10.7%Producer price index change for plywood over the same 12 monthsBureau of Labor Statistics
- 1.7%Producer price index change for hardwood lumber over the same 12 monthsBureau of Labor Statistics
- 10%Section 232 duty on imported softwood timber and lumber from October 14, 2025Proclamation 10976
What the wood tariff actually covers
Proclamation 10976, signed September 29, 2025 and published in the Federal Register on October 6, imposed a 10% ad valorem duty on imports of softwood timber and lumber, a 25% duty on certain upholstered wooden products, and a 25% duty on kitchen cabinets and vanities including parts imported for use in them. The rates applied to goods entered for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on October 14, 2025.
The proclamation also set a schedule: the upholstered furniture rate was to rise to 30% and the cabinet and vanity rate to 50%. Proclamation 11000, signed December 31, 2025, delayed both of those increases by a full year while trade negotiations continued. Country caps apply, with wood products from the United Kingdom capped at 10% and the rate on European Union and Japanese wood products capped so it does not exceed 15% including the ordinary Column 1 duty rate.
What matters for a workshop is the gap in that list. Boards of pine, fir and spruce sold as dimensional lumber sit inside the softwood category. Hardwood boards, the walnut, maple, cherry and white oak a furniture hobbyist buys, were not given a duty in this action at all.
The 2025 action hit softwood, upholstered furniture and cabinets. Hardwood boards were left out of it.
What the price indexes show at the rack
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks what producers charge, which moves before retail does. In the August 2026 producer price index release, the 12-month changes read 11.8% for softwood lumber, 10.7% for plywood, 3.9% for millwork and 1.7% for hardwood lumber. Logs, bolts, timber, pulpwood and wood chips fell 1.4%, so the pressure is at the mill and panel stage rather than in the forest.
Hardwood has been climbing slowly and steadily. The BLS hardwood lumber index, which is not seasonally adjusted, stood at 286.5 in August 2026 against 267.5 in December 2024, about 7% across 20 months on our calculation and with no single jump: the profile of ordinary cost inflation, not a trade shock.
Softwood looks nothing like it. The equivalent softwood lumber index sat near 250 in December 2025, then climbed through the first half of 2026 to a peak above 300 in July before easing in August. Plywood followed, with a 1.5% seasonally adjusted gain in the single month from July to August 2026, on top of the 10.7% over the year.
| Commodity group | 12-month change to August 2026 | What a hobbyist buys from it |
|---|---|---|
| Softwood lumber | +11.8% | Pine, fir and spruce boards, jigs, shop furniture |
| Plywood | +10.7% | Cabinet carcasses, panels, templates |
| Millwork | +3.9% | Moldings, trim, stair parts |
| Hardwood lumber | +1.7% | Walnut, maple, cherry and oak project stock |
| Logs, timber, wood chips | –1.4% | The raw input behind all of the above |
Hardwood is the one to watch before October
Clause 9 of Proclamation 10976 sets a deadline that has not had much attention outside the trade. By October 1, 2026, the Secretary of Commerce must give the President an update on imports of hardwood timber and lumber, their markets and the domestic industry, so that the President can decide whether an additional duty on hardwood timber or lumber is warranted, including the phased import duty recommended by the July 1, 2025 investigation report.
That is not a forecast; it is a scheduled step written into the proclamation. It may end in no action. It is still the single most useful date on the calendar for anyone planning a hardwood-heavy build, because the same proclamation gave the Secretary a standing process for adding wood products to the tariff scope and a separate process for imposing specific or compound duties where undervaluation is suspected.
Domestic supply blunts the effect either way. Much of the walnut, maple, cherry and red oak sold through US hardwood dealers is cut domestically, so a duty on imported hardwood would bite hardest on imported species and imported hardwood plywood.
Canadian softwood carries two more sets of duties
The Section 232 tariff is stacked on top of a trade case that has run since 2018. Commerce published an antidumping duty order on softwood lumber from Canada on January 3, 2018, and it reviews the rates annually. In preliminary results published April 14, 2026 for the 2024 review period, Commerce set countervailing subsidy rates of 11.70% for Resolute and its affiliates, 15.93% for West Fraser and its affiliates, and 14.17% for the 215 non-selected companies.
The parallel antidumping notice confirmed that the cash deposit rate for exporters not covered by a review remains 6.04%, the all-others rate from the original investigation. These are preliminary figures that can change in the final results, and they are collected from importers rather than printed on a price tag.
None of this touches a domestic hardwood mill. It is worth separating the two stories in your head: imported softwood carries a trade-case stack plus the Section 232 national-security tariff, while domestic hardwood carries ordinary cost inflation and a pending report.
Imported softwood carries three layers of duty; domestic hardwood currently carries none of them.
How to buy boards while this settles
If your projects run on hardwood, there is no urgency in the data. A 1.7% annual rise is slower than general inflation, and buying a pile of boards to beat a duty that may never arrive means paying for storage space and accepting movement as the wood acclimates. Buy for the project in front of you, and buy rough stock from a hardwood dealer if you have a planer, since surfacing is a large part of the retail markup.
If your projects run on construction lumber and sheet goods, the case for buying ahead is stronger, because those are the categories that actually moved. Plywood is harder to store flat, so a realistic plan is to buy sheet goods per project and keep a small buffer of softwood for jigs and shop fixtures.
Whatever you buy, the variable that decides whether wood is worth its price is moisture. Boards well above the equilibrium level for a heated shop will move after you cut them, which turns a price saving into a scrap pile.
What to watch next
- The Commerce update on hardwood timber and lumber imports due to the President by October 1, 2026, which decides whether hardwood gets a duty of its own.
- The monthly BLS producer price index for softwood lumber and plywood, for whether the August 2026 easing in softwood continues.
- The final results of the 2024 Canadian softwood reviews, which replace the preliminary countervailing rates set in April 2026.
Where to start
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Shop supplies that decide whether cheap boards stay cheap
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Pinless wood moisture meter | Fits checking wood before you cut | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Hardwood project board pack | Fits small furniture projects | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Birch plywood craft panels | Fits boxes, jigs and templates | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Pinless wood moisture meter
Where to look: Amazon
The cheapest way to avoid paying hardwood prices for wood that will cup. Useful on reclaimed stock and on anything bought from an unheated yard in a wet month.
- No pin holes in the face
- Settles a board dispute in seconds
- Needs a species correction to be accurate
- Reads only near the surface
Hardwood project board pack
Where to look: Amazon
Hardwood producer prices rose only 1.7% in the year to August 2026, so this is the part of the rack with the least reason to stockpile. Buy per project.
- Known thickness and length
- No planer required if pre-surfaced
- Costs more per board foot than rough stock
- Grain and color vary by pack
Birch plywood craft panels
Where to look: Amazon
The category that actually moved. Small panels avoid the storage problem of full sheets, which is the practical reason hobby buyers pay a premium per square foot.
- Stable for templates and carcasses
- Sold in small craft sizes
- Plywood producer prices rose 10.7% over the year
- Hard to store flat
More: Hobbies and Crafts trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- Proclamation 10976: Adjusting Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products — Federal Register via GovInfo
- Proclamation 11000: Amendments to Adjusting Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products — Federal Register via GovInfo
- Producer Price Index news release, table 2 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada: Preliminary Results of Countervailing Duty Administrative Review, 2024 — Department of Commerce via GovInfo
- Certain Softwood Lumber From Canada: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review, 2024 — Department of Commerce via GovInfo
- Producer Price Index by Commodity: Hardwood Lumber — St. Louis Fed FRED
- Producer Price Index by Commodity: Softwood Lumber — St. Louis Fed FRED
Questions readers ask
Is there a tariff on hardwood lumber in 2026?
No. Proclamation 10976 of September 29, 2025 imposed duties on softwood timber and lumber, upholstered wooden products, and kitchen cabinets and vanities. It directed the Secretary of Commerce to report on hardwood timber and lumber imports by October 1, 2026 so the President can decide whether to add one.
How much have plywood prices risen?
The producer price index for plywood rose 10.7% in the 12 months to August 2026, with a 1.5% seasonally adjusted gain in the single month from July to August 2026, according to the BLS producer price index news release.
Why is softwood up so much more than hardwood?
Softwood carries the 10% Section 232 duty that took effect on October 14, 2025, and imported Canadian softwood also carries antidumping and countervailing duties. Hardwood carries none of those, and its index rose 1.7% over the same 12 months.
Should I stock up on lumber now?
The data supports a buffer of construction lumber and sheet goods rather than hardwood. Softwood and plywood producer prices rose more than 10% over the year to August 2026, while hardwood rose 1.7%, slower than general inflation.
