The cocoa market has done what chocolate buyers hoped. After a supply shock that pushed the IMF’s monthly cocoa benchmark from about $2,540 a metric ton in January 2023 to $10,710 in January 2025, the price slid to $3,241 by March 2026. Even after a rebound, July 2026 averaged $5,619, about half the peak.
The chocolate aisle has not followed. The BLS index for candy and chewing gum, which USDA notes includes most chocolate candy, rose 8.1% between August 2025 and August 2026 by our calculation. The gap between what cocoa costs and what chocolate costs is the story of 2026, and so far it is being settled in manufacturers’ margins before it reaches your cart.
Trend Signal
58/100 Steady momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Cocoa costs down, shelf prices still rising
The IMF cocoa benchmark averaged $5,619 a metric ton in July 2026, about half its January 2025 peak, while the BLS candy and chewing gum index was 8.1% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier by our calculation.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- 48%IMF global cocoa price, July 2026 average vs the January 2025 peak, our calculationIMF via FRED
- +8.1%CPI for candy and chewing gum, U.S. city average, Aug 2026 vs Aug 2025, our calculationBLS via FRED
- 14 ptsNet price realization in Hershey’s North America Confectionery segment, Q2 2026Hershey filing, SEC
- +7.1%USDA forecast for 2026 sugar and sweets prices, August 2026 outlookUSDA ERS
How far cocoa has fallen
The IMF series, published on FRED, shows the full arc. Cocoa averaged $4,443 a metric ton in January 2024, jumped to $9,865 in April 2024 and set its high at $10,710 in January 2025. It then trended down through 2025 to $3,241 in March 2026, about 70% below the peak by our calculation, before climbing again to $4,395 in June and $5,619 in July. The International Cocoa Organization listed its daily price at $5,454 a metric ton on September 21, 2026.
Supply has improved. In its August 2026 quarterly bulletin, the ICCO estimated 2024/25 world production up 8.5% to 4.733 million metric tons, while grindings, the industry’s gauge of demand, fell 3.3% to 4.649 million. That left a small surplus of 37,000 metric tons and lifted end-of-season stocks to 1.309 million metric tons, or 28.2% of annual grindings.
| Month | IMF cocoa price, $ per metric ton |
|---|---|
| January 2023 | $2,540 |
| January 2025 | $10,710 (peak) |
| March 2026 | $3,241 |
| June 2026 | $4,395 |
| July 2026 | $5,619 |
Cocoa is far cheaper than at its 2025 peak but still more than double its early-2023 level, and it rose again from March to July 2026.
Why the chocolate aisle has not caught up
Big manufacturers do not buy all their cocoa at the day’s spot price. Hershey’s second-quarter 2026 release cites derivative mark-to-market gains alongside lower net commodity costs, and the company says it often buys commodity contracts to price inventory it needs in future years, so the cocoa cost it reports does not track the spot market month to month.
The rest is pricing. In the second quarter of 2026, Hershey’s consolidated net sales rose 6.6% to $2.79 billion; organic, constant-currency sales grew 3.6% on about 12 points of net price realization, offset by about 8 points of lower volume. In North America Confectionery, net sales rose 4.2% on about 14 points of price, while volume fell about 10 points, which the company attributed to price elasticity and normal shipment timing.
Margins show where the cocoa savings went. Hershey’s reported gross margin was 45.3% in the quarter, up from 30.5% a year earlier, and its adjusted gross margin rose 350 basis points to 41.6%, driven by price realization, lower net commodity costs and productivity savings. The company updated its 2026 outlook to net sales growth of 4.5% to 5% and adjusted earnings-per-share growth of 32.5% to 35%.
Lower cocoa costs have shown up first as wider manufacturer margins, not lower shelf prices.
What the price data say about the shelf
The consumer side is still inflating. The BLS candy and chewing gum index stood at 228.8 in August 2026, 8.1% above a year earlier and 16.9% above August 2024, and the broader sugar and sweets index was up 6.1% year over year, by our calculations from the index levels. USDA’s Economic Research Service, in its August 2026 outlook, forecasts sugar and sweets prices up 7.1% for 2026 and says the increases have come primarily from candy and chewing gum, the subcomponent that includes most chocolate candy. In July 2026 the category was 7.4% above a year earlier.
Tariffs on raw cocoa have eased. A November 14, 2025 executive order added cocoa beans, cocoa paste, cocoa butter and cocoa powder to the list of products exempt from the reciprocal tariff, effective November 13, 2025, and a November 20 order excluded the same items from the additional 40% duty on Brazilian goods. Hershey notes that its outlook does not include potential future tariff rebates.
Shoppers are pushing back. The roughly 10-point volume decline in Hershey’s North American candy business is the clearest sign that higher prices have cut into how much chocolate people buy. In our read, that pressure is more likely to show up first as deeper promotions than as lower list prices.
What could bring prices down, and what could stop it
The case for cheaper chocolate rests on the 2024/25 surplus and the cocoa slide into early 2026 working through manufacturers’ contracts over the coming quarters. The case against is in the same data: the IMF benchmark rose about 73% from March to July 2026 by our calculation, and the ICCO’s August bulletin flagged concern about an El Niño event expected later in 2026. The ICCO also temporarily withheld its 2025/26 production and grindings estimates, so the next supply read is still pending.
For holiday baking in late 2026, we would plan around current shelf prices rather than wait for a cut. Cocoa powder and baking chocolate let you control how much chocolate goes into a recipe, and comparing prices per ounce across bars, chips and powder matters more than timing the market.
What to watch next
- The BLS candy and chewing gum index in the CPI release FRED lists for October 14, 2026; a year-over-year rate below August’s 8.1% would show the shelf starting to catch up
- Hershey’s next quarterly results, for whether price realization shrinks and volume stops falling
- The ICCO’s first 2025/26 production and grindings estimates, and El Niño forecasts
Where to start
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Chocolate formats for home baking compared
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Unsweetened cocoa powder | Fits brownies and cocoa drinks | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Dark chocolate baking bars | Fits melting and ganache | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Semi-sweet chocolate chips, large bag | Fits cookies and quick bakes | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Unsweetened cocoa powder
Where to look: Amazon
For bakers who want chocolate flavor without buying bars. Check which type your recipes call for before you order.
- Concentrated chocolate flavor per spoonful
- Stores in the pantry
- No added cocoa butter, so it will not melt like a bar
- Natural and Dutch-process are not always interchangeable
Dark chocolate baking bars
Where to look: Amazon
For recipes that melt chocolate. Compare the per-ounce price against chips, which are often formulated to hold their shape instead.
- Melts evenly for sauces and dipping
- Cacao percentage printed on the label
- Needs chopping before use
- Prices vary widely by cacao percentage
More: Food and Drink trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- Global price of Cocoa — IMF via FRED
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Candy and Chewing Gum in U.S. City Average — BLS via FRED
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Sugar and Sweets in U.S. City Average — BLS via FRED
- August 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics — International Cocoa Organization
- Cocoa daily prices — International Cocoa Organization
- Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings, August 2026 — USDA Economic Research Service
- Second-quarter 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K — The Hershey Company via SEC EDGAR
- Modifying the Scope of the Reciprocal Tariff with Respect to Certain Agricultural Products — The White House
- Modifying the Scope of Tariffs on the Government of Brazil — The White House
Questions readers ask
Why is chocolate still expensive if cocoa prices fell?
Cocoa fell from a monthly average of $10,710 a metric ton in January 2025 to $3,241 in March 2026 in IMF data, but Hershey, for one, buys commodity contracts to price future inventory, and manufacturers kept raising prices. Hershey reported about 14 points of price realization in North American confectionery in the second quarter of 2026, and the BLS candy index was 8.1% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier by our calculation.
Will chocolate prices go down in 2026?
The official outlook does not expect it. USDA’s Economic Research Service forecast in August 2026 that sugar and sweets prices will rise 7.1% for the year, led by candy and chewing gum, and the IMF cocoa benchmark rose about 73% between March and July 2026 by our calculation.
Are imported cocoa beans still subject to tariffs?
The most recent changes in the official sources we checked are two November 2025 orders. A November 14, 2025 executive order, effective November 13, 2025, added cocoa beans, paste, butter and powder to the list of goods exempt from the reciprocal tariff, and a November 20, 2025 order excluded them from the additional 40% duty on Brazilian goods.
Is the cocoa shortage over?
Supply has improved. The ICCO estimated 2024/25 world production up 8.5% to 4.733 million metric tons and a small surplus of 37,000 metric tons, with stocks at 28.2% of grindings. It flagged an El Niño event expected later in 2026 as a risk and had not published 2025/26 estimates as of its August 2026 bulletin.
