Cotton spent three seasons cheap. USDA’s Economic Research Service estimates the US upland cotton farm price at 63.2 cents per pound for 2024/25 and 62.5 cents for 2025/26, and the global benchmark the International Monetary Fund publishes sat in the mid-70s in cents per pound through late 2025. That run is ending. USDA’s July 14, 2026 outlook projects 73 cents per pound for 2026/27, which it describes as the highest level in three years.
The obvious next question is whether a plain T-shirt is about to cost more, and the honest answer is that the connection is looser than it looks. US apparel prices rose 3.6% in the 12 months to August 2026 while cotton was still near its lows, which tells you most of the movement in a shirt price came from somewhere other than the field.
Trend Signal
58/100 Steady momentum
- Emerging
- Rising
- Mainstream
- Peaking
- Cooling
Smaller crop, falling stocks and a farm price forecast at a three-year high
USDA projects the 2026/27 US upland cotton farm price at 73 cents per pound against 62.5 cents in 2025/26, and the IMF global cotton index rose from 73.96 cents in February 2026 to 88.78 cents in July 2026.
Our editorial reading of the cited data, not a forecast. How it is scored
By the numbers
- 73 centsUSDA projection for the 2026/27 US upland cotton farm price, per poundUSDA Economic Research Service
- 62.5 centsUSDA estimate of the 2025/26 US upland cotton farm price, per poundUSDA Economic Research Service
- 88.78IMF global cotton index for July 2026 in US cents per pound, from 73.96 in FebruaryIMF via FRED
- 1.6M balesUS cotton mill use projected for 2026/27, among the lowest levels on recordUSDA Economic Research Service
Where the cotton price actually is
Two numbers matter, and they are not the same thing. The first is the US farm price, the average received by upland producers, which USDA publishes in its monthly Cotton and Wool Outlook. The July 14, 2026 edition projects 73 cents per pound for the 2026/27 marketing year, against 62.5 cents estimated for 2025/26 and 63.2 cents for 2024/25.
The second is the world benchmark. The IMF series that FRED carries as the global price of cotton, in US cents per pound, ran at 73.96 in February 2026, 92.09 in May and 88.78 in July. That is roughly a fifth higher than where the year began, and it moved before the US farm price forecast did.
| Marketing year | US upland cotton farm price |
|---|---|
| 2024/25 | 63.2 cents per pound |
| 2025/26 estimate | 62.5 cents per pound |
| 2026/27 projection | 73 cents per pound |
The forecast rebound is real, but it starts from a three-season slump, not from a normal level.
Why the crop is smaller
USDA forecasts world cotton production at 117.3 million bales for 2026/27, 4% or 4.65 million bales below the previous season, with every major producer except India down. Global mill use is projected at 122.0 million bales, about 2% higher and the second-highest level since 2017/18. Use above production drains stocks, and USDA puts 2026/27 global ending stocks at 71.2 million bales, 6% lower.
The US side is thinner than the acreage suggests. Growers planted or intended to plant 9.85 million acres, about 6% above 2025, but harvested area is projected at 7.5 million acres, the smallest in three years, because abandonment is forecast near 23.5% against roughly 16% the previous season. Production lands at 13.7 million bales, slightly below the prior crop.
Conditions were weaker too: as of July 12, 2026, 44% of US cotton area was rated good or excellent against 54% at the same point in 2025. None of this is a shortage. It is a market where the cushion of stocks is thinning, which is how forecast prices climb.
Almost none of it is spun in the United States
Here is the part that explains why the tag does not follow the field. USDA projects US cotton mill use at 1.6 million bales for 2026/27 against exports of 12.3 million bales. Domestic spinning is described as one of the lowest levels on record. The United States grows cotton and ships it out; the yarn, the fabric and the shirt are made elsewhere.
Superior Group of Companies, which manufactures apparel for its branded products and healthcare lines, states in its quarterly filing that the principal fabrics it uses are cotton, polyester, spandex and cotton-synthetic and poly-synthetic blends, that the majority are sourced directly or indirectly from China, and that it contracts manufacturing mainly in Haiti, China, Madagascar, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the United States.
By the time fiber becomes a finished garment, freight, duty, brand margin and retail markup sit on top of it, and each moves on its own schedule.
A US cotton price is an input to someone else’s mill before it is an input to your shirt.
What moved apparel prices in 2026 instead
The apparel index rose 3.6% in the 12 months to August 2026 while cotton was still at its cycle lows, and the explanation in company filings is trade policy rather than fiber. Levi Strauss records paying roughly $80 million under the IEEPA tariffs before a Supreme Court ruling on February 20, 2026 invalidated them. Superior Group states collection stopped on February 24, 2026. Kontoor describes Section 122 tariffs taking over until July 2026, then Section 301 tariffs.
Preference programs matter at the low end too. Superior Group notes that the Haiti HOPE and HELP trade agreements expired on September 30, 2025 and were retroactively extended in February 2026 until December 2026, and warns that failure to extend them further would raise the cost of doing business in those countries or push sourcing elsewhere. Basic knitwear, which is what a plain T-shirt is, is exactly the product those programs cover.
Meanwhile the cost of goods did ease for some brands: Levi Strauss attributed part of its 62.7% gross margin in the quarter ended May 31, 2026 to lower product costs alongside pricing actions. Cheap cotton helped that, but it arrived as one ingredient among several.
What this changes on the shelf
For a buyer, the practical read is that a rising cotton price is a slow, small tailwind behind T-shirt prices rather than a switch. If the 73 cent projection holds, the effect shows up next season in fabric contracts, not this month in a multipack.
The place cotton pricing does show up quickly is at the extremes. Extra-long staple cotton, the fiber behind pima and similar labels, is grown mostly in the western United States, and USDA forecasts its area at 150,000 acres for 2026/27, 6% above the prior year but below the five-year average after strong export demand drew down stocks. Small crops in specialty fiber move specialty prices faster than they move commodity ones.
The other response is fabric choice. Blends dilute exposure to cotton, which is one reason so many basics are sold as cotton-polyester. If you want pure cotton and fabric weight, buy on those merits, because the commodity price will not hand you a bargain window.
What to watch next
- USDA’s monthly Cotton and Wool Outlook, which put the 2026/27 US farm price projection at 73 cents per pound in July 2026.
- The IMF global cotton index on FRED, which moved from 73.96 cents in February 2026 to 88.78 cents in July 2026.
- Whether the Haiti HOPE and HELP trade preferences are extended past December 2026, since basic knitwear is what they cover.
Where to start
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Plain T-shirt fabrics compared on what actually differs
| Product type | Good fit for | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Heavyweight cotton T-shirt | Fits buyers who want fabric weight | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Cotton-polyester blend T-shirt multipack | Fits frequent washing and low cost | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
| Pima cotton T-shirt | Fits softer long-staple cotton | See listings on AmazonOpens Amazon search results, not one listing: check the model on the product page. |
Product types that fit the trend described above, not tested models. Check the exact listing before you buy. How we pick them.
Heavyweight cotton T-shirt
Where to look: Amazon
Fabric weight is the one specification on a plain T-shirt that is measurable and comparable across makers. It is also the attribute least affected by the cotton price, because the difference between a light and a heavy shirt is more fiber, not better fiber.
- Weight is a stated number you can compare
- Holds shape through washing
- Slower to dry
- Priced above basic multipacks
Cotton-polyester blend T-shirt multipack
Where to look: Amazon
Blends are where most basic apparel has landed, and they are the practical hedge if cotton keeps climbing toward the 73 cents USDA projects for 2026/27. Read the ratio rather than the marketing word on the front of the pack.
- Least exposed to cotton price moves
- Dries faster than pure cotton
- Different hand feel
- Blend ratios are inconsistent between brands
Pima cotton T-shirt
Where to look: Amazon
Extra-long staple cotton is grown on about 150,000 US acres in 2026/27 by USDA’s forecast, mostly in the West. A small crop means specialty fiber prices can move independently of the commodity, so compare listings that actually name the fiber.
- Named fiber rather than a vague claim
- Distinct feel against a standard tee
- Tied to a small specialty crop
- Wide price spread for similar shirts
More: Fashion and Apparel trends and how the Trend Signal is scored.
Sources
- Cotton and Wool Outlook July 2026, CWS-26g — USDA Economic Research Service
- Cotton and Wool Outlook July 2026 publication record — USDA Economic Research Service
- Global price of Cotton, US cents per pound — FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- Consumer Price Index August 2026, Table 2 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Superior Group of Companies Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 — SEC EDGAR
- Levi Strauss second quarter 2026 results, quarter ended May 31, 2026 — SEC EDGAR
Questions readers ask
What is the cotton price in 2026?
USDA’s Economic Research Service projects the 2026/27 US upland cotton farm price at 73 cents per pound, against 62.5 cents estimated for 2025/26 and 63.2 cents for 2024/25. The IMF global cotton index, carried on FRED, was 88.78 US cents per pound in July 2026.
Will T-shirt prices go up because cotton is rising?
Not directly or quickly. US cotton mill use is projected at just 1.6 million bales for 2026/27 while exports run at 12.3 million, so the fiber in a shirt sold here is spun abroad and reaches the tag through several steps of freight, duty and margin. Apparel prices rose 3.6% in the year to August 2026 while cotton was still near its lows.
Why is the cotton crop smaller in 2026/27?
USDA forecasts world production at 117.3 million bales, 4% below the previous season, with every major producer except India lower. In the United States, harvested area is projected at 7.5 million acres, the smallest in three years, with abandonment near 23.5% against about 16% a season earlier.
Is a cotton-polyester blend a cheaper hedge?
It is less exposed to the cotton market, which is one reason basics are commonly sold as blends. Superior Group of Companies lists cotton, polyester, spandex and cotton-synthetic and poly-synthetic blends as its principal fabrics, sourced mostly from China. The trade-off is feel and breathability rather than price alone.
